Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS61 KRLX 112320
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
720 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tweaked overnight lows tonight on a decent radiational cooling
night. Refined wind and relative humidity grids for Sunday to
better highlight elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Decreasing clouds and near seasonable temperatures today.
Areas subject to cold air drainage the northern lowlands and
northern mountain valleys could see some patchy frost tonight.

2.) Unseasonably hot Sunday with breezy southwesterly winds.
The combination of wind gusts up to 25 mph, relative humidity
dropping below 30 percent, and dry antecedent conditions will
create elevated fire weather concerns.

3.) Summer-like heat persists Monday through Friday with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible each day, but widespread wetting rain
is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Current observations show MVFR stratus lingering behind the
departed cold front, but these clouds will continue to mix out
and scatter through mid-afternoon. This will yield near normal
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure building
overhead tonight brings clear skies and calm winds, establishing
a classic radiational cooling setup. Surface dewpoints will
drop into the lower to mid 30s across the north. Temperatures in
the valleys will decouple rapidly after sunset. Expect lows to
reach the mid 30s in the northern mountain valleys and upper 30s
in typical northern lowland cold spots. Patchy frost is
possible in areas subject to cold air drainage away from major
rivers, primarily in the Northeast Mountains and northern
lowlands. Due to the highly localized and terrain- driven nature
of this frost, widespread coverage is not anticipated,
precluding the need for a frost advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The surface high shifts east by Sunday morning, allowing a warm
front to rapidly lift northward across the area. Deep
southwesterly flow and robust warm air advection will send
temperatures soaring into the low to mid 80s across the
lowlands. Deep boundary layer mixing up to H850 will transport
drier air and stronger momentum to the surface. Forecast
soundings suggest sustained southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with
gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph during peak afternoon heating.
Minimum relative humidity values will mix down into the 25 to 30
percent range. When combined with 10-hour fuel moisture values
that have struggled to recover given recent dry conditions, an
elevated fire weather threat may materialize during the
afternoon and early evening hours, somewhat offset by
increasingly mixed live/dead fuels and lowland tree leaf out. A
fire danger statement may be necessary.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A persistent upper-level ridge anchors over the eastern seaboard
through the work week, maintaining a persistent and anomalously
warm southwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain 15 to 20
degrees above normal, with widespread highs in the mid to upper
80s across the lowlands and 70s in the higher terrain. Record
highs may be threatened by mid-week. Weak shortwave energy
rippling along the northern periphery of the ridge will interact
with a gradually moistening boundary layer to trigger isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Given weak
deep-layer shear generally under 15KTs (strongest Tuesday
evening) and negligible synoptic forcing, convection will be
primarily diurnally driven and pulse-like in nature, maximizing
in the afternoon and evening hours. While MLCAPE values may
approach 1000 to 1500 J/kg, the lack of shear will severely
limit convective organization. Basin average rainfall totals for
the week will offer little relief to ongoing dry conditions,
with a half inch or less expected across southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia, and less than a quarter inch elsewhere.
While the deterministic forecast suggests light overall
rainfall, the 75th percentile of the guidance indicates
localized amounts up to an inch could occur under the heaviest,
slow-moving thunderstorm cores, though this remains an outlier
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR should be the dominate flight category through this TAF
period. The only exception would be some patchy valley fog that
could potentially develop and get into EKN. For now, confidence
is low that any fog would develop under some surface flow and a
very dry airmass, therefore left mention out of the TAF. By
tomorrow afternoon winds should pick up out of the southwest and
promote occasional gusts into the teens during the afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low for overnight patchy fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN has potential to fog in the morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the work week.
However, brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible
within scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Monday.

&&

.Climate...
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected through much of next
week with daily highs challenged on Tuesday and Wednesday.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Tue, 4/14    |   Wed, 4/15    |   Thu, 4/16    |   Fri, 4/17    |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 85 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 82 / 86 (2002) | 80 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 79 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 82 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 79 / 87 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JZ
CLIMATE...JP