Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KRLX 041815
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Added slightly more PoPs to the forecast and thunderstorm
probability to account for ongoing convection as guidance did
not have it in the forecast package this early.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and storms, some severe, today into early next week.

2. Hot and humid conditions continue into Sunday. Sunday will
not have heat headlines as some relief will start and continue
into the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today will focus on potential thunderstorm activity across the
entire area which may become strong to severe and pose a flash
flood risk. Much of the activity has developed in the eastern
half of the CWA already as indicated on radar. Severe indices
are elevated and in place to support severe thunderstorms which
is being observed at this point in time. With CAPE close to near
4500 J/kg, enough instability and the lack of CIN there will
support strong thunderstorm development into the evening. The
main threat will be damaging wind and with freezing levels
around 14K feet, hail will have a hard time reaching the ground
before melting, however small hail to borderline large hail
could be a possibility under severe storm activity, especially
within a downburst. The area is mainly under a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms issued by SPC.

Another threat will be flash flooding. PWAT values approaching
1.7 inches will provide heavy loaded soundings with enough low
to mid level moisture and DCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
(anomalously high) will support downbursts. With the lack of
shear and steering flow aloft, storms will likely be up and
down quickly, however the downburst potential will be able to
support flash flooding. Currently storms are moving at 10mph
north-northeast so very slowly. If storms hover over the same
area and/or backbuild and train areas will be susceptible to
flooding issues, especially low lying and flood prone areas that
are hit repeatedly. We are under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall from WPC so this does support isolated flash flood
potential.

With convection already occurring Hi-res models suggest
activity continuing into the evening at which point will start
to diminish around 5Z. The most aggressive models are the
Hi-resW FV3 and ARW, but they do not imply that there will be a
lot to deal or worry about which is not the case currently.
Convection looks to become more scattered in nature. Thinking
with high pressure still hanging around will help with little
subsidence and small caps to keep storm in check for the most
part along the Ohio river and west of there. If convection
brings in enough cloud coverage some of that high instability
will be lost and will help limit thunderstorms or at least the
potential for severe by late afternoon across the eastern half
of the CWA.

High pressure fleets toward the south today and tonight but we
still have weak upper level riding, however with convective
activity still having the potential this afternoon and evening
we will be under a "dirty" high regime which will allow for
isolated to scattered convection areawide. By Sunday, we have a
similar setup with convective potential during the afternoon
and evening, but the severe threat will be slightly less with
just a marginal threat under most of the area, except for the
northeast mountains where a slight risk will reside where
heights lower and low pressure replaces our high pressure
system as it moves further southeast. More storm potential and
the possibility of severe thunderstorms will continue into the
new work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The heat wave continues through the weekend, however headlines
will not continue as we do start to see some relief on Sunday
with temperatures decreasing a few degrees and dewpoints
declining as well as apparent temperatures. Apparent
temperatures are borderline at best where advisory criteria
getting near or just above the 100 degree mark (feel like
temperature) in isolated areas, however with convective
activity expected and the greater cloud coverage on Sunday will
deter some of that daytime heating to where there is not much
confidence in extending the headlines out further. Subsequently,
starting the new work week temperatures will continue to fall
back to seasonable around the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will likely dominate for most today at which
point will start to change categories as fog once forms again
tonight after the clearing of cloud coverage and also the dead
flow at the surface. Any sites with antecedent rainfall from
possible afternoon/evening convection will likely go down hard
in fog and low stratus.

Storms today into the evening could be on the heavier side,
especially under any severe thunderstorm activity, which will bring
VIS down to MVFR or worse at times if a site is directly hit.
Potential thunderstorm activity will wane after 5Z and then mostly
just shower activity may exist thereafter for the rest of the
evening. IFR valley fog could get into sites tonight, but should
lift by 12Z although the trend has been by 1330Z at EKN
recently which is the site that has the most dense fog
expected overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of storms, and
associated flight restrictions may vary from the forecast. Fog
tonight may be denser and more widespread than currently
forecast, especially at HTS if they decouple.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remains possible
through the end of the weekend into early next week due to
localized reductions to CIGs/VSBYs. Areas of fog or low stratus
possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ032>034-039-
     040-515-517-519-521-525.
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ